While many economic analyzes of the e-cigarette sector are published every month, all agree that the real boom of the vape is yet to come. Today, we share with you a " forecast analysis of the evolution of the adoption curve of the products of the vape »Proposed by Franck Shoemaker, a tobacconist also specialized in risk reduction.
We are only at the beginning! The real boom of the vape is yet to come.
If we apply a marketing study to the vape market to study its adoption curve, we can see that the mass market is still before us:
There are three stages in three waves on the adoption curve of a studied market:
– The first wave, the market of innovators and precursors. It corresponds to the first visionary buyers convinced of the innovation of the product.
– The second wave, the mass market. This mass market is itself divided into two categories:
# the early majority corresponding to the buyers who are waiting for the returns of the first experiences of the first wave (innovators and precursors)
# the late majority who expects the great spread and popularity of the product to buy.
The focus must be on the mass market curve because it corresponds to the explosion of the market that interests us.
– The third wave, the latecomers market. It corresponds to buyers who are the last to adopt the product.
In order to apply and study the adoption curve of the vape market, we must take into account three elements that are fundamental in order to measure and predict the arrival of the market in its mass phase, the wave of adoption of the greatest number ...
The three elements to study and add to the equation to determine the departure of the mass wave applied to the vape are:
- The potential for cost reduction. This potential will blossom on the horizon of the pack of cigarettes cigarettes 10 euros. Easy to predict since the dates of future increases are known.
- The risk reduction potential. Potential more difficult to predict, it is now known but still suffers from a lack of recognition of the legislature and the Ministry of Health.
– The ban on menthol cigarettes. This item will boost the mass market, easily predictable since its date is known (May 2020)
Let's now focus on the wave we are interested in, namely the mass market! The "Top Start" of this mass market will therefore be determined by the potential cost reduction offered by the vape, on the horizon of the packets of fuel cigarettes to 10 €. This can be reinforced by the risk reduction potential of the vape in favor of official recognition of this potential by the legislator and the Ministry of Health on the model of the United Kingdom. But this remains difficult to predict because it depends on a motivated political will, for example, a randomized scientific study that would confirm this risk reduction potential (existing in the UK). Finally, the ban on menthol cigarettes will attract more consumers to the vape, which will not be affected by this ban.
The projection that we can therefore make on the adoption curve of the Vape market therefore leads to this forecast :
The Vape Market is not yet in its phase of "mass market". It is the potential for cost reduction that will determine the beginning of the mass market. This market will be acclaimed by the consumer for the potential for cost reduction offered by the vape.
This phase will really begin on the horizon of the pack of cigarettes fuel 10 €, psychological threshold that will convert many consumers to the vape with several successive increases in 2019 and 2020. The potential for harm reduction with recognition from the legislator and the Ministry of Health will give a second boost to the mass market curve of the vape plebiscite for this finally recognized potential.
The ban on menthol meanwhile will leave no choice for consumers to go to the vape. The notion of legal or illegal cross-border buying of cigarettes, as well as the notion of smuggled cigarettes market was deliberately ignored to focus this study on the single curve of adoption of the vape market.
It will be necessary to be ready! The first waves of massive and successive increase are coming!
Franck Cordonnier (Facebook page).